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Christian Alexander's writeup:

When the schedule makers at “the worldwide leader in sports” locked down this Thursday night’s game between Clemson and NC State, I doubt very much they thought they would be encountering a 4-3 Wolfpack squad.

No, coming off an 11-3 season in 2002, one that included a beating of Florida State and a thrashing of Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl, Wolfpack fans had every right to think this season could be awfully special. So, while many agreed an early-season trip to Ohio State might result in a loss, dropping games to Wake Forest and Georgia Tech certainly was a disappointment.

I think it's safe to say the brass in Bristol, CT., thought the worst-case scenario for this Thursday night would be a 6-1 NC State team that was solidly ranked in the top 25.

Of course, I doubt Clemson’s Terry Bowden will have much sympathy for NC State coach Chuck Amato as his team struggles to live up to its preseason hype. Ever since Bowden has taken over at Clemson, he has been looked to as the man to return the Tigers to a national powerhouse.

Yet, like the Wolfpack this year, Clemson has had its share of road bumps on the path back to the top of the ACC.

The paths of these two teams will cross this Thursday in Raleigh and both teams can ill-afford another loss, especially NC State.

With the chips down and their backs to the wall, I look for an inspired effort out of the top offensive weapon in ACC. That would be NC State signal caller Philip Rivers. The senior QB from Athens, AL., is the ACC’s all-time passing leader with just over 11,000 yards. With just two more touchdown passes, Rivers will tie the ACC career-record of 79 set by Florida State’s Chris Weinke. Rivers has already been named the ACC’s offensive back of the week twice.

Rivers, along with WR Jerricho Cotchery and RB T.A. McLendon, should provide enough offensive punch for the Wolfpack to keep the Tigers at arm’s length. Behind that core, the Wolfpack leads the ACC in total offense.

It's certainly worth noting that NC State plays much better at home than on the road. The Wolfpack are 4-0 in Raleigh, and none of those decisions have been closer than a touchdown margin. Clemson will rely on QB Charlie Whitehurst to keep them in the game but it's important to note that the sophomore doesn’t have a solid running game to compliment his air attack.

Yes, NC State has struggled this year on defense but more often it has been with teams that can produce on the ground, such as Wake Forest (L 38-24), rather than pass-happy teams such as Texas Tech (W 49-21).

Without a consistent ground attack I look for the Wolfpack defense to keep Whitehurst and company relatively in check, while Rivers and his crew continue to ring the bell.

Final score: NC State 35 - Clemson 24
 

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BIG AL's Pick

The Rams have won their last 6 Thursday Home games, and they've been blowouts! Their average margin of victory in these games is 20.2 points. Last week, Colorado State destroyed Brigham Young 58-13, and off that victory fall into a momentum angle that is 141-74 ATS since 1980. Without giving away the entire system, this angle involves playing ON certain teams that won by at least 21+ points, and scored 55 or more in that win. And we can improve the angle to 56-20 ATS if it's a conference game, and our home team is off back-to-back wins. The Rams have covered 7 of 10 vs. Air Force, and will get the cash again tonight
 

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Larry Ness calls this his ACC GOM, and here's what Mr. Ben Burns has to say.

Let's CASH

Coming off one of their biggest wins in years, and playing on a short week, Clemson may be ripe for a letdown. Although they managed to come away with the win, the banged up Tigers took 5 personal fouls last week. That kind of discipline, or lack thereof, will catch up with them here. NC State has gone 4-0 at home this year, winning every game by a minimum of a touchdown and by an average margin of 20 points. Clemson has lost their last two road games by a combined 50 points. The WolfPack blew out Clemson last year and are 4-1 ATS their last 5 meetings. Look for another win and cover. Play on NC STATE
 

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thoraxx:

Your from SC and you are on NCSU and I am from Raleigh and on Clemson. You raised some very valid points in support of backing NCSU, especially who the best player on the field will be.

1 thing Larry Ness failed to mention though was all the competition NCSU has played at home this year - including the likes of Western Carolina, UNC, and last week's lucky win over a decent UCONN squad.

I will take the points in this situation.

Fats
 

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